Winners in four major categories by year (dark fill indicates incorrect prediction)
Year Category Actual Winner Prob Predicted Winner Prob
2015 Picture Spotlight 0.06 The Revenant 0.56
Director Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu 0.98 Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu 0.98
Actor Leonardo DiCaprio 0.99 Leonardo DiCaprio 0.99
Actress Brie Larson 0.94 Brie Larson 0.94
2014 Picture Birdman 0.51 Birdman 0.51
Director Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu 0.94 Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu 0.94
Actor Eddie Redmayne 0.95 Eddie Redmayne 0.95
Actress Julianne Moore 0.90 Julianne Moore 0.90
2013 Picture 12 Years a Slave 0.67 12 Years a Slave 0.67
Director Alfonso Cuaron 0.85 Alfonso Cuaron 0.85
Actor Matthew McConaughey 0.93 Matthew McConaughey 0.93
Actress Cate Blanchett 0.69 Cate Blanchett 0.69
2012 Picture Argo 0.17 Lincoln 0.37
Director Ang Lee 0.20 Steven Spielberg 0.58
Actor Daniel Day-Lewis 0.78 Daniel Day-Lewis 0.78
Actress Jennifer Lawrence 0.86 Jennifer Lawrence 0.86
2011 Picture The Artist 0.89 The Artist 0.89
Director Michael Hazanavicius 0.85 Michael Hazanavicius 0.85
Actor Jean Dujardin 0.64 Jean Dujardin 0.64
Actress Meryl Streep 0.08 Viola Davis 0.71
2010 Picture The King's Speech 0.84 The King's Speech 0.84
Director Tom Hooper 0.93 Tom Hooper 0.93
Actor Colin Firth 0.99 Colin Firth 0.99
Actress Natalie Portman 0.87 Natalie Portman 0.87
2009 Picture The Hurt Locker 0.78 The Hurt Locker 0.78
Director Kathryn Bigelow 0.94 Kathryn Bigelow 0.94
Actor Jeff Bridges 0.90 Jeff Bridges 0.90
Actress Sandra Bullock 0.90 Sandra Bullock 0.90
2008 Picture Slumdog Millionaire 0.59 Slumdog Millionaire 0.59
Director Danny Boyle 0.81 Danny Boyle 0.81
Actor Sean Penn 0.42 Sean Penn 0.42
Actress Kate Winslet 0.92 Kate Winslet 0.92
2007 Picture No Country for Old Men 0.70 No Country for Old Men 0.70
Director Joel Coen and Ethan Coen 0.96 Joel Coen and Ethan Coen 0.96
Actor Daniel Day-Lewis 0.93 Daniel Day-Lewis 0.93
Actress Marion Cotillard 0.11 Julie Christie 0.72
2006 Picture The Departed 0.10 Babel 0.69
Director Martin Scorsese 0.97 Martin Scorsese 0.97
Actor Forest Whitaker 0.90 Forest Whitaker 0.90
Actress Helen Mirren 0.96 Helen Mirren 0.96
2005 Picture Crash 0.03 Brokeback Mountain 0.91
Director Ang Lee 0.91 Ang Lee 0.91
Actor Philip Seymour Hoffman 0.95 Philip Seymour Hoffman 0.95
Actress Reese Witherspoon 0.76 Reese Witherspoon 0.76
2004 Picture Million Dollar Baby 0.01 The Aviator 0.97
Director Clint Eastwood 0.95 Clint Eastwood 0.95
Actor Jamie Foxx 0.51 Jamie Foxx 0.51
Actress Hilary Swank 0.93 Hilary Swank 0.93
2003 Picture The Return of the King 0.94 The Return of the King 0.94
Director Peter Jackson 0.93 Peter Jackson 0.93
Actor Sean Penn 0.85 Sean Penn 0.85
Actress Charlize Theron 0.87 Charlize Theron 0.87
2002 Picture Chicago 0.95 Chicago 0.95
Director Roman Polanski 0.03 Rob Marshall 0.92
Actor Adrien Brody 0.30 Daniel Day-Lewis 0.52
Actress Nicole Kidman 0.07 Renee Zellweger 0.90
2001 Picture A Beautiful Mind 0.23 The Fellowship of the Ring 0.40
Director Ron Howard 0.92 Ron Howard 0.92
Actor Denzel Washington 0.00 Russell Crowe 0.99
Actress Halle Berry 0.34 Halle Berry 0.34
2000 Picture Gladiator 0.97 Gladiator 0.97
Director Steven Soderbergh 0.01 Ang Lee 0.95
Actor Russell Crowe 0.67 Russell Crowe 0.67
Actress Julia Roberts 0.93 Julia Roberts 0.93
1999 Picture American Beauty 0.85 American Beauty 0.85
Director Sam Mendes 0.92 Sam Mendes 0.92
Actor Kevin Spacey 0.82 Kevin Spacey 0.82
Actress Hilary Swank 0.10 Annette Bening 0.78
1998 Picture Shakespeare in Love 0.10 Saving Private Ryan 0.89
Director Steven Spielberg 0.99 Steven Spielberg 0.99
Actor Roberto Benigni 0.97 Roberto Benigni 0.97
Actress Gwyneth Paltrow 0.92 Gwyneth Paltrow 0.92
1997 Picture Titanic 0.98 Titanic 0.98
Director James Cameron 0.99 James Cameron 0.99
Actor Jack Nicholson 0.84 Jack Nicholson 0.84
Actress Helen Hunt 0.87 Helen Hunt 0.87
1996 Picture The English Patient 0.98 The English Patient 0.98
Director Anthony Minghella 0.99 Anthony Minghella 0.99
Actor Geoffrey Rush 0.96 Geoffrey Rush 0.96
Actress Frances McDormand 0.67 Frances McDormand 0.67
1995 Picture Braveheart 0.30 Apollo 13 0.40
Director Mel Gibson 0.58 Mel Gibson 0.58
Actor Nicolas Cage 0.96 Nicolas Cage 0.96
Actress Susan Sarandon 0.22 Sharon Stone 0.39
1994 Picture Forrest Gump 0.99 Forrest Gump 0.99
Director Robert Zemeckis 0.99 Robert Zemeckis 0.99
Actor Tom Hanks 0.51 Tom Hanks 0.51
Actress Jessica Lange 0.55 Jessica Lange 0.55
1993 Picture Schindler's List 0.97 Schindler's List 0.97
Director Steven Spielberg 0.99 Steven Spielberg 0.99
Actor Tom Hanks 0.59 Tom Hanks 0.59
Actress Holly Hunter 0.75 Holly Hunter 0.75
1992 Picture Unforgiven 0.10 The Crying Game 0.72
Director Clint Eastwood 0.96 Clint Eastwood 0.96
Actor Al Pacino 0.91 Al Pacino 0.91
Actress Emma Thompson 0.69 Emma Thompson 0.69
1991 Picture The Silence of the Lambs 0.55 The Silence of the Lambs 0.55
Director Jonathan Demme 0.91 Jonathan Demme 0.91
Actor Anthony Hopkins 0.10 Nick Nolte 0.67
Actress Jodie Foster 0.45 Jodie Foster 0.45
1990 Picture Dances With Wolves 0.98 Dances With Wolves 0.98
Director Kevin Costner 0.96 Kevin Costner 0.96
Actor Jeremy Irons 0.83 Jeremy Irons 0.83
Actress Kathy Bates 0.36 Kathy Bates 0.36
1989 Picture Driving Miss Daisy 0.59 Driving Miss Daisy 0.59
Director Oliver Stone 0.98 Oliver Stone 0.98
Actor Daniel Day-Lewis 0.07 Tom Cruise 0.64
Actress Jessica Tandy 0.47 Jessica Tandy 0.47
1988 Picture Rain Man 0.92 Rain Man 0.92
Director Barry Levinson 0.92 Barry Levinson 0.92
Actor Dustin Hoffman 0.78 Dustin Hoffman 0.78
Actress Jodie Foster 0.16 Melanie Griffith 0.55
1987 Picture The Last Emperor 0.97 The Last Emperor 0.97
Director Bernardo Bertolucci 0.98 Bernardo Bertolucci 0.98
Actor Michael Douglas 0.58 Michael Douglas 0.58
Actress Cher 0.39 Cher 0.39
1986 Picture Platoon 0.89 Platoon 0.89
Director Oliver Stone 0.90 Oliver Stone 0.90
Actor Paul Newman 0.07 Bob Hoskins 0.74
Actress Marlee Matlin 0.69 Marlee Matlin 0.69
1985 Picture Out of Africa 0.44 Out of Africa 0.44
Director Sydney Pollack 0.47 Sydney Pollack 0.47
Actor William Hurt 0.14 Jack Nicholson 0.42
Actress Geraldine Page 0.07 Whoopi Goldberg 0.70
1984 Picture Amadeus 0.96 Amadeus 0.96
Director Milos Forman 0.95 Milos Forman 0.95
Actor F. Murray Abraham 0.89 F. Murray Abraham 0.89
Actress Sally Field 0.48 Sally Field 0.48
1983 Picture Terms of Endearment 0.99 Terms of Endearment 0.99
Director James L. Brooks 0.98 James L. Brooks 0.98
Actor Robert Duvall 0.57 Robert Duvall 0.57
Actress Shirley MacLaine 0.53 Shirley MacLaine 0.53
1982 Picture Gandhi 0.78 Gandhi 0.78
Director Richard Attenborough 0.94 Richard Attenborough 0.94
Actor Ben Kingsley 0.77 Ben Kingsley 0.77
Actress Meryl Streep 0.38 Meryl Streep 0.38
1981 Picture Chariots of Fire 0.01 Reds 0.88
Director Warren Beatty 0.98 Warren Beatty 0.98
Actor Henry Fonda 0.79 Henry Fonda 0.79
Actress Katharine Hepburn 0.05 Meryl Streep 0.33
1980 Picture Ordinary People 0.83 Ordinary People 0.83
Director Robert Redford 0.89 Robert Redford 0.89
Actor Robert De Niro 0.91 Robert De Niro 0.91
Actress Sissy Spacek 0.32 Mary Tyler Moore 0.54
1979 Picture Kramer vs. Kramer 0.94 Kramer vs. Kramer 0.94
Director Robert Benton 0.91 Robert Benton 0.91
Actor Dustin Hoffman 0.91 Dustin Hoffman 0.91
Actress Sally Field 0.61 Sally Field 0.61
1978 Picture The Deer Hunter 0.69 The Deer Hunter 0.69
Director Michael Cimino 0.95 Michael Cimino 0.95
Actor Jon Voight 0.57 Jon Voight 0.57
Actress Jane Fonda 0.29 Jane Fonda 0.29
1977 Picture Annie Hall 0.13 The Turning Point 0.58
Director Woody Allen 0.54 Woody Allen 0.54
Actor Richard Dreyfuss 0.32 Richard Burton 0.56
Actress Diane Keaton 0.36 Diane Keaton 0.36
1976 Picture Rocky 0.93 Rocky 0.93
Director John G. Avildsen 0.87 John G. Avildsen 0.87
Actor Peter Finch 0.87 Peter Finch 0.87
Actress Faye Dunaway 0.55 Faye Dunaway 0.55
1975 Picture One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest 0.96 One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest 0.96
Director Milos Forman 0.86 Milos Forman 0.86
Actor Jack Nicholson 0.88 Jack Nicholson 0.88
Actress Louise Fletcher 0.64 Louise Fletcher 0.64
1974 Picture The Godfather Part II 0.58 The Godfather Part II 0.58
Director Francis Ford Coppola 0.96 Francis Ford Coppola 0.96
Actor Art Carney 0.02 Jack Nicholson 0.87
Actress Ellen Burstyn 0.07 Gena Rowlands 0.37
1973 Picture The Sting 0.46 The Exorcist 0.49
Director George Roy Hill 0.94 George Roy Hill 0.94
Actor Jack Lemmon 0.06 Al Pacino 0.54
Actress Glenda Jackson 0.09 Ellen Burstyn 0.58
1972 Picture The Godfather 0.73 The Godfather 0.73
Director Bob Fosse 0.03 Francis Ford Coppola 0.96
Actor Marlon Brando 0.82 Marlon Brando 0.82
Actress Liza Minnelli 0.37 Liza Minnelli 0.37
1971 Picture The French Connection 0.76 The French Connection 0.76
Director William Friedkin 0.93 William Friedkin 0.93
Actor Gene Hackman 0.82 Gene Hackman 0.82
Actress Jane Fonda 0.34 Jane Fonda 0.34
1970 Picture Patton 0.60 Patton 0.60
Director Franklin J. Schaffner 0.98 Franklin J. Schaffner 0.98
Actor George C. Scott 0.90 George C. Scott 0.90
Actress Glenda Jackson 0.16 Ali MacGraw 0.61
1969 Picture Midnight Cowboy 0.35 Anne of the Thousand Days 0.49
Director John Schlesinger 0.98 John Schlesinger 0.98
Actor John Wayne 0.28 John Wayne 0.28
Actress Maggie Smith 0.09 Genevieve Bujold 0.54
1968 Picture Oliver! 0.13 The Lion in Winter 0.77
Director Carol Reed 0.02 Anthony Harvey 0.97
Actor Cliff Robertson 0.00 Peter O'Toole 0.88
Actress Katharine Hepburn 0.20 Joanne Woodward 0.34
Actress Barbra Streisand 0.27 Joanne Woodward 0.34
1967 Picture In the Heat of the Night 0.02 The Graduate 0.94
Director Mike Nichols 0.97 Mike Nichols 0.97
Actor Rod Steiger 0.84 Rod Steiger 0.84
Actress Katharine Hepburn 0.06 Faye Dunaway 0.43
1966 Picture A Man For All Seasons 0.76 A Man For All Seasons 0.76
Director Fred Zinneman 0.99 Fred Zinneman 0.99
Actor Paul Scofield 0.59 Paul Scofield 0.59
Actress Elizabeth Taylor 0.10 Anouk Aimee 0.67
1965 Picture The Sound of Music 0.94 The Sound of Music 0.94
Director Robert Wise 0.98 Robert Wise 0.98
Actor Lee Marvin 0.11 Oskar Werner 0.67
Actress Julie Christie 0.24 Samantha Eggar 0.59
1964 Picture My Fair Lady 0.93 My Fair Lady 0.93
Director George Cukor 0.99 George Cukor 0.99
Actor Rex Harrison 0.05 Peter O'Toole 0.85
Actress Julia Andrews 0.46 Julia Andrews 0.46
1963 Picture Tom Jones 0.99 Tom Jones 0.99
Director Tony Richardson 0.97 Tony Richardson 0.97
Actor Sidney Poitier 0.83 Sidney Poitier 0.83
Actress Patricia Neal 0.20 Leslie Caron 0.48
1962 Picture Lawrence of Arabia 0.92 Lawrence of Arabia 0.92
Director David Lean 1.00 David Lean 1.00
Actor Gregory Peck 0.97 Gregory Peck 0.97
Actress Anne Bancroft 0.21 Geraldine Page 0.62
1961 Picture West Side Story 0.98 West Side Story 0.98
Director Jerome Robbins, Robert Wise 0.99 Jerome Robbins, Robert Wise 0.99
Actor Maximilian Schell 0.75 Maximilian Schell 0.75
Actress Sophia Loren 0.09 Geraldine Page 0.60
1960 Picture The Apartment 0.99 The Apartment 0.99
Director Billy Wilder 1.00 Billy Wilder 1.00
Actor Burt Lancaster 0.82 Burt Lancaster 0.82
Actress Elizabeth Taylor 0.08 Shirley MacLaine 0.36
1959 Picture Ben-Hur 0.97 Ben-Hur 0.97
Director William Wyler 0.99 William Wyler 0.99
Actor Charlton Heston 0.28 Charlton Heston 0.28
Actress Simone Signoret 0.16 Elizabeth Taylor 0.67
1958 Picture Gigi 0.81 Gigi 0.81
Director Vincente Minnelli 0.98 Vincente Minnelli 0.98
Actor David Niven 0.76 David Niven 0.76
Actress Susan Hayward 0.67 Susan Hayward 0.67
1957 Picture The Bridge On the River Kwai 0.64 The Bridge On the River Kwai 0.64
Director David Lean 0.97 David Lean 0.97
Actor Alec Guinness 0.88 Alec Guinness 0.88
Actress Joanne Woodward 0.62 Joanne Woodward 0.62
1956 Picture Around the World in 80 Days 0.02 The King and I 0.82
Director George Stevens 0.98 George Stevens 0.98
Actor Yul Brynner 0.09 Kirk Douglas 0.38
Actress Ingrid Bergman 0.10 Deborah Kerr 0.75
1955 Picture Marty 0.75 Marty 0.75
Director Delbert Mann 0.98 Delbert Mann 0.98
Actor Ernest Borgnine 0.92 Ernest Borgnine 0.92
Actress Anna Magnani 0.81 Anna Magnani 0.81
1954 Picture On the Waterfont 0.96 On the Waterfont 0.96
Director Elia Kazan 0.99 Elia Kazan 0.99
Actor Marlon Brando 0.97 Marlon Brando 0.97
Actress Grace Kelly 0.64 Grace Kelly 0.64
1953 Picture From Here to Eternity 0.83 From Here to Eternity 0.83
Director Fred Zinneman 0.97 Fred Zinneman 0.97
Actor William Holden 0.16 Montgomery Clift 0.39
Actress Audrey Hepburn 0.55 Audrey Hepburn 0.55
1952 Picture The Greatest Show on Earth 0.07 The Quiet Man 0.53
Director John Ford 0.95 John Ford 0.95
Actor Gary Cooper 0.92 Gary Cooper 0.92
Actress Shirley Booth 0.11 Susan Hayward 0.84
1951 Picture An American in Paris 0.02 A Place in the Sun 0.76
Director George Stevens 0.89 George Stevens 0.89
Actor Humphrey Bogart 0.29 Montgomery Clift 0.29
Actress Vivien Leigh 0.13 Shelley Winters 0.35
1950 Picture All About Eve 0.47 All About Eve 0.47
Director Joseph L. Mankiewicz 0.09 Billy Wilder 0.78
Actor Jose Ferrer 0.09 William Holden 0.63
Actress Judy Holliday 0.09 Gloria Swanson 0.76
1949 Picture All the King's Men 0.50 All the King's Men 0.50
Director Joseph L. Mankiewicz 0.02 Robert Rossen 0.50
Actor Broderick Crawford 0.64 Broderick Crawford 0.64
Actress Olivia de Havilland 0.19 Jeanne Crain 0.26
1948 Picture Hamlet 0.01 Johnny Belinda 0.97
Director John Huston 0.19 Jean Negulesco 0.57
Actor Laurence Olivier 0.91 Laurence Olivier 0.91
Actress Jane Wyman 0.67 Jane Wyman 0.67
1947 Picture Gentleman's Agreement 0.88 Gentleman's Agreement 0.88
Director Elia Kazan 0.57 Elia Kazan 0.57
Actor Ronald Colman 0.78 Ronald Colman 0.78
Actress Loretta Young 0.13 Rosalind Russell 0.39
1946 Picture The Best Years Of Our Lives 0.62 The Best Years Of Our Lives 0.62
Director William Wyler 0.18 Frank Capra 0.56
Actor Fredric March 0.02 Gregory Peck 0.85
Actress Olivia de Havilland 0.08 Rosalind Russell 0.43
1945 Picture The Lost Weekend 0.33 The Bells Of St. Mary's 0.44
Director Billy Wilder 0.38 Billy Wilder 0.38
Actor Ray Milland 0.81 Ray Milland 0.81
Actress Joan Crawford 0.16 Ingrid Bergman 0.73
1944 Picture Going My Way 0.37 Going My Way 0.37
Director Leo McCarey 0.37 Leo McCarey 0.37
Actor Bing Crosby 0.03 Alexander Knox 0.79
Actress Ingrid Bergman 0.81 Ingrid Bergman 0.81
1943 Picture Casablanca 0.03 The Song Of Bernadette 0.90
Director Michael Curtiz 0.28 Henry King 0.40
Actor Paul Lukas 0.10 Walter Pidgeon 0.33
Actress Jennifer Jones 0.45 Jennifer Jones 0.45
1942 Picture Mrs. Miniver 0.80 Mrs. Miniver 0.80
Director William Wyler 0.71 William Wyler 0.71
Actor James Cagney 0.24 Ronald Colman 0.48
Actress Greer Garson 0.51 Greer Garson 0.51
1941 Picture How Green Was My Valley 0.21 Sergeant York 0.42
Director John Ford 0.25 William Wyler 0.44
Actor Gary Cooper 0.42 Gary Cooper 0.42
Actress Joan Fontaine 0.25 Olivia de Havilland 0.25
1940 Picture Rebecca 0.87 Rebecca 0.87
Director John Ford 0.16 Alfred Hitchcock 0.44
Actor James Stewart 0.24 Laurence Olivier 0.57
Actress Ginger Rogers 0.21 Joan Fontaine 0.49
1939 Picture Gone With the Wind 0.81 Gone With the Wind 0.81
Director Victor Fleming 0.25 Frank Capra 0.31
Actor Robert Donat 0.33 Robert Donat 0.33
Actress Vivien Leigh 0.39 Vivien Leigh 0.39
1938 Picture You Can't Take It With You 0.30 You Can't Take It With You 0.30
Director Frank Capra 0.25 Frank Capra 0.25
Actor Spencer Tracy 0.17 Leslie Howard 0.41
Actress Bette Davis 0.21 Wendy Hiller 0.26