The following table provides predictions for the four main categories for the 2012 Academy Awards. The nominees are presented in order of expected probability to win, with the probabilities (in percentages) given in the final column.
In a nutshell, the predictions are based on a statistical analysis of past Oscar history. In particular, I identify the influence of factors associated with past winners (such as other Oscar nominations, total number of Oscar nominations, previous Oscar nominations/wins, Golden Globe wins, Guild wins). I then calculate a score for each current nominee based on these factors - nominees with a higher score have more chance of winning (see the notes column in the table). For further details of how the predictions were made click here.
|Picture||Lincoln||37||Lincoln and Life of Pi lead the pack with the most nominations, including a traditionally important Best Director nomination. However, Argo's Producer's Guild and Golden Globe Drama wins put it strongly in the mix, despite lacking a Best Director nomination. In this exceptionally open category this year, Silver Linings Playbook is also in with a reasonable chance of winning. The remaining nominees don't appear to have much chance of winning, even the Golden Globe Comedy or Musical winner, Les Misérables. Overall, this category seems the hardest to call of the four major races this year.|
|Life of Pi||21|
|Silver Linings Playbook||14|
|Beasts of the Southern Wild||2|
|Zero Dark Thirty||<1|
|Director||Steven Spielberg for Lincoln||58||With Director's Guild winner, Ben Affleck, missing from the list of Oscar nominees, this category is more open than usual. Steven Spielberg appears to have the edge since his film has the most nominations and he has six previous Best Director nominations. If the Academy decides not to award Spielberg his third best director win, Ang Lee (with two previous Best Director nominations) and David O. Russell (with one previous Best Director nomination) aren't too far behind. A win for either of the first-time nominees, Michael Haneke and Benh Zeitlin, would be surprising.|
|Ang Lee for Life of Pi||20|
|David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook||17|
|Michael Haneke for Amour||3|
|Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild||3|
|Actor in a Leading Role||Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln||78||Daniel Day-Lewis (with his Screen Actors Guild and Golden Globe Drama wins) seems on course for his third Lead Actor Oscar, but first-time nominees, Hugh Jackman and Bradley Cooper, have an outside chance of upsetting the odds. Joaquin Phoenix's second lead actor nomination probably won't give him a win this year, while Denzel Washington's fourth lead actor nomination is also unlikely to give him his second win.|
|Hugh Jackman in Les Misérables||13|
|Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook||7|
|Joaquin Phoenix in The Master||1|
|Denzel Washington in Flight||<1|
|Actress in a Leading Role||Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook||86||Although Jessica Chastain won the Golden Globe (Drama) award, Jennifer Lawrence took over top spot when she added the Screen Actors Guild award to her earlier Golden Globe (Comedy or Musical) win. Emmanuelle Riva, Quvenzhané Wallis, and Naomi Watts are probably not in the running to win this year.|
|Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty||10|
|Emmanuelle Riva in Amour||2|
|Quvenzhané Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild||2|
|Naomi Watts in The Impossible||<1|
Return to Oscar Predictions page.
Last updated: Feb 4, 2013
Oscar® and Academy Awards® are the trademarks of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. This site is neither endorsed by nor affiliated with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
© 2013, Iain Pardoe