Iain's 2008 Oscar Predictions

The following table provides predictions for the four main categories for the 2008 Academy Awards. The nominees are presented in order of expected probability to win, with the probabilities (in percentages) given in the final column. Eventual winners shown in bold.

Category Nominee Probability (%) Notes
Picture Slumdog Millionaire 59 Benjamin Button scores high for receiving thirteen overall nominations, but Slumdog Millionaire with ten overall nominations has the edge due to its Golden Globe and Producer's Guild wins. Milk falls in the middle with eight overall nominations, while Frost/Nixon and The Reader trail with five nominations each.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button 33
Milk 5
Frost/Nixon 1
The Reader 1
Director Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire 81 First-time nominee Danny Boyle benefits from his Director's Guild win, giving him an advantage over other first-time nominee David Fincher. The three remaining nominees gain some benefit from having been nominated before (twice in the case of Stephen Daldry), but not enough to give them much chance of winning this year.
David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button 8
Gus Van Sant for Milk 5
Stephen Daldry for The Reader 3
Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon 3
Actor in a Leading Role Sean Penn in Milk 42 Sean Penn scores big for his Screen Actors Guild win, for being nominated in a movie that has also been nominated for Best Picture, and for his four previous lead actor nominations. However, his previous lead actor win for 2003's Mystic River reduces his chance of winning again this year, making this category a little more unpredictable. Brad Pitt and Frank Langella benefit from having been nominated in movies that have also been nominated for Best Picture, while popular favorite Mickey Rourke gets a boost from his Golden Globe (drama) acting win. Richard Jenkins should be considered a real long shot this year. Overall, this category seems the hardest to call of the four major races this year.
Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button 23
Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler 22
Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon 11
Richard Jenkins in The Visitor 2
Actress in a Leading Role Kate Winslet in The Reader 92 Kate Winslet scores big for Golden Globe (drama) and Screen Actors Guild awards (albeit in "Supporting Role" categories), and also for being nominated in a movie that has also been nominated for Best Picture. Meryl Streep also benefits from her Screen Actors Guild award, but her previous lead actress win for 1982's Sophie's Choice reduces her chance of winning again this year. This category seems to be the least competitive of the four major races this year, with Anne Hathaway, Angelina Jolie, and Melissa Leo all real long shots.
Meryl Streep in Doubt 4
Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married 1
Angelina Jolie in Changeling 1
Melissa Leo in Frozen River 1

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Last updated: December 29, 2009


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© 2009, Iain Pardoe