Iain's 2007 Oscar Predictions

The following table provides predictions for the four main categories for the 2007 Academy Awards. The nominees are presented in order of expected probability to win, with the probabilities (in percentages) given in the final column. Eventual winners shown in bold.

Category Nominee Probability (%) Notes
Picture No Country for Old Men 70 While No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood both score high for receiving eight overall nominations each (including key Best Director nominations), the former has the edge due to its Producer's Guild win. Both Atonement and Michael Clayton score high for receiving seven overall nominations each, but while the former has a key Best Director nomination, the latter does not (although it almost makes up for this by having received the Golden Globe for best drama this year). Popular favorite Juno trails with the fewest overall nominations, although one of these is the key Best Director nomination. Overall, this category seems the hardest to call of the four major races this year.
There Will Be Blood 18
Michael Clayton 6
Atonement 3
Juno 2
Director Joel Coen and Ethan Coen for No Country for Old Men 96 Joel and Ethan Coen benefit from their Director's Guild win and from Joel's previous director nomination for 1996's Fargo, giving them an advantage over first-time nominee Paul Thomas Anderson. Other first-time nominees, Tony Gilroy and Jason Reitman have an outside chance of playing spoiler, while another first-time nominee, Julian Schnabel, is less likely to do so since his movie is the only one not to have been nominated for Best Picture. This category and the lead actor category seem to be the least competitive of the four major races this year.
Paul Thomas Anderson for There Will Be Blood 2
Tony Gilroy for Michael Clayton 1
Jason Reitman for Juno 1
Julian Schnabel for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly <1
Actor in a Leading Role Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood 93 Daniel Day-Lewis scores big for Golden Globe (drama) and Screen Actors Guild wins. Although his previous lead actor win for 1989's My Left Foot reduces his chance of winning this year, this disadvantage is offset by having been nominated in a movie that has also been nominated for Best Picture and having received a total of three previous lead actor nominations. Johnny Depp could upset the odds with his third lead actor nomination (but no wins yet) and Golden Globe (musical or comedy) acting win. George Clooney benefits slightly for having been nominated in a movie that has also been nominated for Best Picture, while Tommy Lee Jones and Viggo Mortensen should both be considered real long shots this year - this is the first lead actor nomination for all three.
Johnny Depp in Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street 4
George Clooney in Michael Clayton 2
Tommy Lee Jones in In the Valley of Elah <1
Viggo Mortensen in Eastern Promises <1
Actress in a Leading Role Julie Christie in Away from Her 72 Julie Christie scores big for Golden Globe (drama) and Screen Actors Guild awards, enough to offset the disadvantage produced by her previous lead actress win for 1965's Darling. Marion Cotillard benefits from her Golden Globe (musical or comedy) win, while Ellen Page is the only lead actress to be nominated in a movie that has also been nominated for Best Picture - either could conceivably upset the odds. Cate Blanchett and Laura Linney should both be considered real long shots this year.
Marion Cotillard in La Vie en Rose 11
Ellen Page in Juno 10
Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth: The Golden Age <1
Laura Linney in The Savages <1

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Last updated: February 3, 2008


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© 2008, Iain Pardoe