Iain's 2005 Oscar Predictions

The following table provides predictions for the four main categories for the 2005 Academy Awards. The nominees are presented in order of expected probability to win, with the probabilities (in percentages) given in the final column. Eventual winners shown in bold.

Category Nominee Probability (%) Notes
Picture Brokeback Mountain 91 Brokeback Mountain gets a big score for Golden Globe (drama) and Producer's Guild wins. However, that didn't help The Aviator last year, so an upset is always possible.
Munich 3
Crash 3
Good Night, And Good Luck 2
Capote 1
Director Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain 91 Ang Lee benefits from his Director's Guild win, and, to a lesser degree, from a previous director nomination. This is Steven Spielberg's sixth director nomination, giving him a higher score than first-time nominees Paul Haggis, George Clooney, and Bennett Miller.
Steven Spielberg for Munich 7
Paul Haggis for Crash 1
George Clooney for Good Night, And Good Luck 1
Bennett Miller for Capote 1
Actor in a Leading Role Philip Seymour Hoffman in Capote 95 Philip Seymour Hoffman scores big for Golden Globe (drama) and Screen Actors Guild awards, and, to a lesser degree, for being nominated for a performance in a best picture nominee. Heath Ledger and David Strathairn are also in movies that are best picture nominees, and Joaquin Phoenix has a Golden Globe (musical/comedy) win, but it will be surprising if they can overtake Hoffman on Oscar night.
Heath Ledger in Brokeback Mountain 2
Joaquin Phoenix in Walk The Line 2
David Strathairn in Good Night, And Good Luck 1
Terrence Howard in Hustle & Flow <1
Actress in a Leading Role Reese Witherspoon in Walk The Line 76 Reese Witherspoon scores big for Golden Globe (musical/comedy) and Screen Actors Guild awards. However, Felicity Huffman benefits from her Golden Globe (drama) win. Witherspoon would appear to have the edge over Huffman, but this one seems to be the closest of the four major races.
Felicity Huffman in Transamerica 15
Judi Dench in Mrs Henderson Presents 4
Keira Knightley in Pride & Prejudice 4
Charlize Theron in North Country 2

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Last updated: February 13, 2006


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© 2006, Iain Pardoe