Best Picture winners: ordered from most to least surprising
Year Actual Winner Prob Predicted Winner Prob Ratio
1948 Hamlet 0.01 Johnny Belinda 0.97 0.01
2004 Million Dollar Baby 0.01 The Aviator 0.97 0.01
1981 Chariots of Fire 0.01 Reds 0.88 0.01
1967 In the Heat of the Night 0.02 The Graduate 0.94 0.02
1956 Around the World in 80 Days 0.02 The King and I 0.82 0.02
1951 An American in Paris 0.02 A Place in the Sun 0.76 0.03
2005 Crash 0.03 Brokeback Mountain 0.91 0.03
1943 Casablanca 0.03 The Song Of Bernadette 0.90 0.03
1998 Shakespeare in Love 0.10 Saving Private Ryan 0.89 0.11
2015 Spotlight 0.06 The Revenant 0.56 0.11
1952 The Greatest Show on Earth 0.07 The Quiet Man 0.53 0.13
1992 Unforgiven 0.10 The Crying Game 0.72 0.14
2006 The Departed 0.10 Babel 0.69 0.14
1968 Oliver! 0.13 The Lion in Winter 0.77 0.17
1977 Annie Hall 0.13 The Turning Point 0.58 0.22
2012 Argo 0.17 Lincoln 0.37 0.46
1941 How Green Was My Valley 0.21 Sergeant York 0.42 0.50
2001 A Beautiful Mind 0.23 The Fellowship of the Ring 0.40 0.58
1969 Midnight Cowboy 0.35 Anne of the Thousand Days 0.49 0.71
1995 Braveheart 0.30 Apollo 13 0.40 0.75
1945 The Lost Weekend 0.33 The Bells Of St. Mary's 0.44 0.75
1973 The Sting 0.46 The Exorcist 0.49 0.94
1938 You Can't Take It With You 0.30 You Can't Take It With You 0.30 1.00
1944 Going My Way 0.37 Going My Way 0.37 1.00
1985 Out of Africa 0.44 Out of Africa 0.44 1.00
1950 All About Eve 0.47 All About Eve 0.47 1.00
2014 Birdman 0.51 Birdman 0.51 1.00
1949 All the King's Men 0.50 All the King's Men 0.50 1.00
1991 The Silence of the Lambs 0.55 The Silence of the Lambs 0.55 1.00
1974 The Godfather Part II 0.58 The Godfather Part II 0.58 1.00
2008 Slumdog Millionaire 0.59 Slumdog Millionaire 0.59 1.00
1989 Driving Miss Daisy 0.59 Driving Miss Daisy 0.59 1.00
1970 Patton 0.60 Patton 0.60 1.00
1946 The Best Years Of Our Lives 0.62 The Best Years Of Our Lives 0.62 1.00
1957 The Bridge On the River Kwai 0.64 The Bridge On the River Kwai 0.64 1.00
2013 12 Years a Slave 0.67 12 Years a Slave 0.67 1.00
1978 The Deer Hunter 0.69 The Deer Hunter 0.69 1.00
2007 No Country for Old Men 0.70 No Country for Old Men 0.70 1.00
1972 The Godfather 0.73 The Godfather 0.73 1.00
1955 Marty 0.75 Marty 0.75 1.00
1971 The French Connection 0.76 The French Connection 0.76 1.00
1966 A Man For All Seasons 0.76 A Man For All Seasons 0.76 1.00
2009 The Hurt Locker 0.78 The Hurt Locker 0.78 1.00
1982 Gandhi 0.78 Gandhi 0.78 1.00
1942 Mrs. Miniver 0.80 Mrs. Miniver 0.80 1.00
1958 Gigi 0.81 Gigi 0.81 1.00
1939 Gone With the Wind 0.81 Gone With the Wind 0.81 1.00
1980 Ordinary People 0.83 Ordinary People 0.83 1.00
1953 From Here to Eternity 0.83 From Here to Eternity 0.83 1.00
2010 The King's Speech 0.84 The King's Speech 0.84 1.00
1999 American Beauty 0.85 American Beauty 0.85 1.00
1940 Rebecca 0.87 Rebecca 0.87 1.00
1947 Gentleman's Agreement 0.88 Gentleman's Agreement 0.88 1.00
1986 Platoon 0.89 Platoon 0.89 1.00
2011 The Artist 0.89 The Artist 0.89 1.00
1988 Rain Man 0.92 Rain Man 0.92 1.00
1962 Lawrence of Arabia 0.92 Lawrence of Arabia 0.92 1.00
1976 Rocky 0.93 Rocky 0.93 1.00
1964 My Fair Lady 0.93 My Fair Lady 0.93 1.00
2003 The Return of the King 0.94 The Return of the King 0.94 1.00
1979 Kramer vs. Kramer 0.94 Kramer vs. Kramer 0.94 1.00
1965 The Sound of Music 0.94 The Sound of Music 0.94 1.00
2002 Chicago 0.95 Chicago 0.95 1.00
1984 Amadeus 0.96 Amadeus 0.96 1.00
1975 One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest 0.96 One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest 0.96 1.00
1954 On the Waterfont 0.96 On the Waterfont 0.96 1.00
2000 Gladiator 0.97 Gladiator 0.97 1.00
1993 Schindler's List 0.97 Schindler's List 0.97 1.00
1987 The Last Emperor 0.97 The Last Emperor 0.97 1.00
1959 Ben-Hur 0.97 Ben-Hur 0.97 1.00
1997 Titanic 0.98 Titanic 0.98 1.00
1996 The English Patient 0.98 The English Patient 0.98 1.00
1990 Dances With Wolves 0.98 Dances With Wolves 0.98 1.00
1961 West Side Story 0.98 West Side Story 0.98 1.00
1994 Forrest Gump 0.99 Forrest Gump 0.99 1.00
1983 Terms of Endearment 0.99 Terms of Endearment 0.99 1.00
1963 Tom Jones 0.99 Tom Jones 0.99 1.00
1960 The Apartment 0.99 The Apartment 0.99 1.00