Best Director winners: ordered from most to least surprising
Year Actual Winner Prob Predicted Winner Prob Ratio
2000 Steven Soderbergh 0.01 Ang Lee 0.95 0.01
1968 Carol Reed 0.02 Anthony Harvey 0.97 0.02
1972 Bob Fosse 0.03 Francis Ford Coppola 0.96 0.03
2002 Roman Polanski 0.03 Rob Marshall 0.92 0.03
1949 Joseph L. Mankiewicz 0.02 Robert Rossen 0.50 0.04
1950 Joseph L. Mankiewicz 0.09 Billy Wilder 0.78 0.12
1946 William Wyler 0.18 Frank Capra 0.56 0.32
1948 John Huston 0.19 Jean Negulesco 0.57 0.33
2012 Ang Lee 0.20 Steven Spielberg 0.58 0.34
1940 John Ford 0.16 Alfred Hitchcock 0.44 0.36
1941 John Ford 0.25 William Wyler 0.44 0.57
1943 Michael Curtiz 0.28 Henry King 0.40 0.70
1939 Victor Fleming 0.25 Frank Capra 0.31 0.81
1938 Frank Capra 0.25 Frank Capra 0.25 1.00
1944 Leo McCarey 0.37 Leo McCarey 0.37 1.00
1945 Billy Wilder 0.38 Billy Wilder 0.38 1.00
1985 Sydney Pollack 0.47 Sydney Pollack 0.47 1.00
1977 Woody Allen 0.54 Woody Allen 0.54 1.00
1947 Elia Kazan 0.57 Elia Kazan 0.57 1.00
1995 Mel Gibson 0.58 Mel Gibson 0.58 1.00
1942 William Wyler 0.71 William Wyler 0.71 1.00
2008 Danny Boyle 0.81 Danny Boyle 0.81 1.00
2011 Michael Hazanavicius 0.85 Michael Hazanavicius 0.85 1.00
2013 Alfonso Cuaron 0.85 Alfonso Cuaron 0.85 1.00
1975 Milos Forman 0.86 Milos Forman 0.86 1.00
1976 John G. Avildsen 0.87 John G. Avildsen 0.87 1.00
1980 Robert Redford 0.89 Robert Redford 0.89 1.00
1951 George Stevens 0.89 George Stevens 0.89 1.00
1986 Oliver Stone 0.90 Oliver Stone 0.90 1.00
2005 Ang Lee 0.91 Ang Lee 0.91 1.00
1991 Jonathan Demme 0.91 Jonathan Demme 0.91 1.00
1979 Robert Benton 0.91 Robert Benton 0.91 1.00
2001 Ron Howard 0.92 Ron Howard 0.92 1.00
1999 Sam Mendes 0.92 Sam Mendes 0.92 1.00
1988 Barry Levinson 0.92 Barry Levinson 0.92 1.00
2010 Tom Hooper 0.93 Tom Hooper 0.93 1.00
2003 Peter Jackson 0.93 Peter Jackson 0.93 1.00
1971 William Friedkin 0.93 William Friedkin 0.93 1.00
2014 Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu 0.94 Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu 0.94 1.00
2009 Kathryn Bigelow 0.94 Kathryn Bigelow 0.94 1.00
1982 Richard Attenborough 0.94 Richard Attenborough 0.94 1.00
1973 George Roy Hill 0.94 George Roy Hill 0.94 1.00
2004 Clint Eastwood 0.95 Clint Eastwood 0.95 1.00
1984 Milos Forman 0.95 Milos Forman 0.95 1.00
1978 Michael Cimino 0.95 Michael Cimino 0.95 1.00
1952 John Ford 0.95 John Ford 0.95 1.00
2007 Joel Coen and Ethan Coen 0.96 Joel Coen and Ethan Coen 0.96 1.00
1992 Clint Eastwood 0.96 Clint Eastwood 0.96 1.00
1990 Kevin Costner 0.96 Kevin Costner 0.96 1.00
1974 Francis Ford Coppola 0.96 Francis Ford Coppola 0.96 1.00
2006 Martin Scorsese 0.97 Martin Scorsese 0.97 1.00
1967 Mike Nichols 0.97 Mike Nichols 0.97 1.00
1963 Tony Richardson 0.97 Tony Richardson 0.97 1.00
1957 David Lean 0.97 David Lean 0.97 1.00
1953 Fred Zinneman 0.97 Fred Zinneman 0.97 1.00
2015 Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu 0.98 Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu 0.98 1.00
1989 Oliver Stone 0.98 Oliver Stone 0.98 1.00
1987 Bernardo Bertolucci 0.98 Bernardo Bertolucci 0.98 1.00
1983 James L. Brooks 0.98 James L. Brooks 0.98 1.00
1981 Warren Beatty 0.98 Warren Beatty 0.98 1.00
1970 Franklin J. Schaffner 0.98 Franklin J. Schaffner 0.98 1.00
1969 John Schlesinger 0.98 John Schlesinger 0.98 1.00
1965 Robert Wise 0.98 Robert Wise 0.98 1.00
1958 Vincente Minnelli 0.98 Vincente Minnelli 0.98 1.00
1956 George Stevens 0.98 George Stevens 0.98 1.00
1955 Delbert Mann 0.98 Delbert Mann 0.98 1.00
1998 Steven Spielberg 0.99 Steven Spielberg 0.99 1.00
1997 James Cameron 0.99 James Cameron 0.99 1.00
1996 Anthony Minghella 0.99 Anthony Minghella 0.99 1.00
1994 Robert Zemeckis 0.99 Robert Zemeckis 0.99 1.00
1993 Steven Spielberg 0.99 Steven Spielberg 0.99 1.00
1966 Fred Zinneman 0.99 Fred Zinneman 0.99 1.00
1964 George Cukor 0.99 George Cukor 0.99 1.00
1961 Jerome Robbins, Robert Wise 0.99 Jerome Robbins, Robert Wise 0.99 1.00
1959 William Wyler 0.99 William Wyler 0.99 1.00
1954 Elia Kazan 0.99 Elia Kazan 0.99 1.00
1962 David Lean 1.00 David Lean 1.00 1.00
1960 Billy Wilder 1.00 Billy Wilder 1.00 1.00