Best Actor winners: ordered from most to least surprising
Year Actual Winner Prob Predicted Winner Prob Ratio
2001 Denzel Washington 0.00 Russell Crowe 0.99 0.00
1968 Cliff Robertson 0.00 Peter O'Toole 0.88 0.00
1974 Art Carney 0.02 Jack Nicholson 0.87 0.02
1946 Fredric March 0.02 Gregory Peck 0.85 0.02
1944 Bing Crosby 0.03 Alexander Knox 0.79 0.04
1964 Rex Harrison 0.05 Peter O'Toole 0.85 0.06
1986 Paul Newman 0.07 Bob Hoskins 0.74 0.09
1989 Daniel Day-Lewis 0.07 Tom Cruise 0.64 0.11
1973 Jack Lemmon 0.06 Al Pacino 0.54 0.11
1950 Jose Ferrer 0.09 William Holden 0.63 0.14
1991 Anthony Hopkins 0.10 Nick Nolte 0.67 0.15
1965 Lee Marvin 0.11 Oskar Werner 0.67 0.16
1956 Yul Brynner 0.09 Kirk Douglas 0.38 0.24
1943 Paul Lukas 0.10 Walter Pidgeon 0.33 0.30
1985 William Hurt 0.14 Jack Nicholson 0.42 0.33
1953 William Holden 0.16 Montgomery Clift 0.39 0.41
1938 Spencer Tracy 0.17 Leslie Howard 0.41 0.41
1940 James Stewart 0.24 Laurence Olivier 0.57 0.42
1942 James Cagney 0.24 Ronald Colman 0.48 0.50
1977 Richard Dreyfuss 0.32 Richard Burton 0.56 0.57
2002 Adrien Brody 0.30 Daniel Day-Lewis 0.52 0.58
1951 Humphrey Bogart 0.29 Montgomery Clift 0.29 1.00
1969 John Wayne 0.28 John Wayne 0.28 1.00
1959 Charlton Heston 0.28 Charlton Heston 0.28 1.00
1939 Robert Donat 0.33 Robert Donat 0.33 1.00
2008 Sean Penn 0.42 Sean Penn 0.42 1.00
1941 Gary Cooper 0.42 Gary Cooper 0.42 1.00
2004 Jamie Foxx 0.51 Jamie Foxx 0.51 1.00
1994 Tom Hanks 0.51 Tom Hanks 0.51 1.00
1983 Robert Duvall 0.57 Robert Duvall 0.57 1.00
1978 Jon Voight 0.57 Jon Voight 0.57 1.00
1987 Michael Douglas 0.58 Michael Douglas 0.58 1.00
1993 Tom Hanks 0.59 Tom Hanks 0.59 1.00
1966 Paul Scofield 0.59 Paul Scofield 0.59 1.00
1949 Broderick Crawford 0.64 Broderick Crawford 0.64 1.00
2011 Jean Dujardin 0.64 Jean Dujardin 0.64 1.00
2000 Russell Crowe 0.67 Russell Crowe 0.67 1.00
1961 Maximilian Schell 0.75 Maximilian Schell 0.75 1.00
1958 David Niven 0.76 David Niven 0.76 1.00
1982 Ben Kingsley 0.77 Ben Kingsley 0.77 1.00
1988 Dustin Hoffman 0.78 Dustin Hoffman 0.78 1.00
1947 Ronald Colman 0.78 Ronald Colman 0.78 1.00
2012 Daniel Day-Lewis 0.78 Daniel Day-Lewis 0.78 1.00
1981 Henry Fonda 0.79 Henry Fonda 0.79 1.00
1945 Ray Milland 0.81 Ray Milland 0.81 1.00
1999 Kevin Spacey 0.82 Kevin Spacey 0.82 1.00
1972 Marlon Brando 0.82 Marlon Brando 0.82 1.00
1971 Gene Hackman 0.82 Gene Hackman 0.82 1.00
1960 Burt Lancaster 0.82 Burt Lancaster 0.82 1.00
1990 Jeremy Irons 0.83 Jeremy Irons 0.83 1.00
1963 Sidney Poitier 0.83 Sidney Poitier 0.83 1.00
1997 Jack Nicholson 0.84 Jack Nicholson 0.84 1.00
1967 Rod Steiger 0.84 Rod Steiger 0.84 1.00
2003 Sean Penn 0.85 Sean Penn 0.85 1.00
1976 Peter Finch 0.87 Peter Finch 0.87 1.00
1975 Jack Nicholson 0.88 Jack Nicholson 0.88 1.00
1957 Alec Guinness 0.88 Alec Guinness 0.88 1.00
1984 F. Murray Abraham 0.89 F. Murray Abraham 0.89 1.00
2009 Jeff Bridges 0.90 Jeff Bridges 0.90 1.00
2006 Forest Whitaker 0.90 Forest Whitaker 0.90 1.00
1970 George C. Scott 0.90 George C. Scott 0.90 1.00
1992 Al Pacino 0.91 Al Pacino 0.91 1.00
1980 Robert De Niro 0.91 Robert De Niro 0.91 1.00
1979 Dustin Hoffman 0.91 Dustin Hoffman 0.91 1.00
1948 Laurence Olivier 0.91 Laurence Olivier 0.91 1.00
1955 Ernest Borgnine 0.92 Ernest Borgnine 0.92 1.00
1952 Gary Cooper 0.92 Gary Cooper 0.92 1.00
2007 Daniel Day-Lewis 0.93 Daniel Day-Lewis 0.93 1.00
2013 Matthew McConaughey 0.93 Matthew McConaughey 0.93 1.00
2014 Eddie Redmayne 0.95 Eddie Redmayne 0.95 1.00
2005 Philip Seymour Hoffman 0.95 Philip Seymour Hoffman 0.95 1.00
1996 Geoffrey Rush 0.96 Geoffrey Rush 0.96 1.00
1995 Nicolas Cage 0.96 Nicolas Cage 0.96 1.00
1998 Roberto Benigni 0.97 Roberto Benigni 0.97 1.00
1962 Gregory Peck 0.97 Gregory Peck 0.97 1.00
1954 Marlon Brando 0.97 Marlon Brando 0.97 1.00
2015 Leonardo DiCaprio 0.99 Leonardo DiCaprio 0.99 1.00
2010 Colin Firth 0.99 Colin Firth 0.99 1.00