The fifth for-credit "Statistics in Action" session will be held in class on Wednesday, week 10.
You should prepare for the session; it will be based on the situation outlined below. Before class, read the outline and get together in your group to discuss the problem. You should also use SPSS to analyze the data: you will need the BIKESALES data file. Then, when you come to class you should be prepared to participate in a class-discussion, using what you've already discussed in your group. You can (and probably should) make notes on what you've discussed in your group before class. You should bring these notes to the class-discussion. Do not turn anything in however (except for the answer to the question asked at the beginning of the session) - this is not a written assignment.
Grading for the session will be on a zero/full credit basis. A question about the relevant study will be asked at the beginning of the session, and each group will write their answer down on a piece of paper. This will then be collected (and checked) by the instructor. Then the class discussion will begin. Each member of a group will receive full credit for that session if the group gets their written answer correct, or, if not, if at least one of the group makes some relevant remark in the ensuing discussion. If the group gets their written answer wrong and no-one in the group makes a useful contribution to the discussion, everyone in that group gets zero credit for that session.
In class, after the beginning question, we'll discuss the questions listed under "Focus" and also anything else that comes up that you think is relevant or interesting in the context of the problem. To keep the class-discussion orderly and the grading fair, you must raise your hand before saying something. The instructor will ignore anything you say unless you've raised your hand first and been asked to speak. The instructor will do his best to allow the first person to raise their hand the opportunity to speak each time. If you keep your hand up, you will be given the opportunity to speak once the current speaker has finished making their point.
When you make a relevant observation, suggest a useful approach to answering a question, or raise an interesting question not previously considered, the instructor will make a note of which group you are in, and keep a tally of which groups have participated and which have not. Remember, you only need get the beginning question correct, or, failing that, make one relevant remark to get full credit for your group. The instructor will decide what is relevant and what is not, and his decision is final - no arguments.
The BIKESALES data file contains quarterly sales of the TRK-50 mountain bike for the previous four years at a bicycle shop in Switzerland. The bike sales exhibit a linear trend and a strong seasonal pattern, with bike sales being higher in the spring and summer quarters than in the winter and fall quarters. The shop owner wishes to forecast sales for next year to ensure that there is sufficient inventory to meet demand.