Best Picture winners: ordered from most to least surprising
Year	Actual Winner	Prob	Predicted Winner	Prob	Ratio
1948	Hamlet	0.01	Johnny Belinda	0.97	0.01
2004	Million Dollar Baby	0.01	The Aviator	0.97	0.01
1981	Chariots of Fire	0.01	Reds	0.88	0.01
1967	In the Heat of the Night	0.02	The Graduate	0.94	0.02
1956	Around the World in 80 Days	0.02	The King and I	0.82	0.02
1951	An American in Paris	0.02	A Place in the Sun	0.76	0.03
2005	Crash	0.03	Brokeback Mountain	0.90	0.03
1943	Casablanca	0.03	The Song Of Bernadette	0.90	0.03
1998	Shakespeare in Love	0.10	Saving Private Ryan	0.89	0.11
1952	The Greatest Show on Earth	0.07	The Quiet Man	0.53	0.13
1992	Unforgiven	0.10	The Crying Game	0.72	0.14
2006	The Departed	0.10	Babel	0.69	0.14
1968	Oliver!	0.13	The Lion in Winter	0.77	0.17
1977	Annie Hall	0.13	The Turning Point	0.58	0.22
1941	How Green Was My Valley	0.21	Sergeant York	0.42	0.50
2001	A Beautiful Mind	0.23	The Fellowship of the Ring	0.40	0.58
1969	Midnight Cowboy	0.35	Anne of the Thousand Days	0.49	0.71
1995	Braveheart	0.30	Apollo 13	0.40	0.75
1945	The Lost Weekend	0.33	The Bells Of St. Mary's	0.44	0.75
1973	The Sting	0.46	The Exorcist	0.49	0.94
1938	You Can't Take It With You	0.30	You Can't Take It With You	0.30	1.00
1944	Going My Way	0.37	Going My Way	0.37	1.00
1985	Out of Africa	0.44	Out of Africa	0.44	1.00
1950	All About Eve	0.47	All About Eve	0.47	1.00
1949	All the King's Men	0.50	All the King's Men	0.50	1.00
1991	The Silence of the Lambs	0.55	The Silence of the Lambs	0.55	1.00
1974	The Godfather Part II	0.58	The Godfather Part II	0.58	1.00
1989	Driving Miss Daisy	0.59	Driving Miss Daisy	0.59	1.00
1970	Patton	0.60	Patton	0.60	1.00
1946	The Best Years Of Our Lives	0.62	The Best Years Of Our Lives	0.62	1.00
1957	The Bridge On the River Kwai	0.64	The Bridge On the River Kwai	0.64	1.00
1978	The Deer Hunter	0.69	The Deer Hunter	0.69	1.00
1972	The Godfather	0.73	The Godfather	0.73	1.00
1955	Marty	0.75	Marty	0.75	1.00
1971	The French Connection	0.76	The French Connection	0.76	1.00
1966	A Man For All Seasons	0.76	A Man For All Seasons	0.76	1.00
1982	Gandhi	0.78	Gandhi	0.78	1.00
1942	Mrs. Miniver	0.80	Mrs. Miniver	0.80	1.00
1958	Gigi	0.81	Gigi	0.81	1.00
1939	Gone With the Wind	0.81	Gone With the Wind	0.81	1.00
1980	Ordinary People	0.83	Ordinary People	0.83	1.00
1953	From Here to Eternity	0.83	From Here to Eternity	0.83	1.00
1999	American Beauty	0.85	American Beauty	0.85	1.00
1940	Rebecca	0.87	Rebecca	0.87	1.00
1947	Gentleman's Agreement	0.88	Gentleman's Agreement	0.88	1.00
1986	Platoon	0.89	Platoon	0.89	1.00
1988	Rain Man	0.92	Rain Man	0.92	1.00
1962	Lawrence of Arabia	0.92	Lawrence of Arabia	0.92	1.00
1976	Rocky	0.93	Rocky	0.93	1.00
1964	My Fair Lady	0.93	My Fair Lady	0.93	1.00
2003	The Return of the King	0.94	The Return of the King	0.94	1.00
1979	Kramer vs. Kramer	0.94	Kramer vs. Kramer	0.94	1.00
1965	The Sound of Music	0.94	The Sound of Music	0.94	1.00
2002	Chicago	0.95	Chicago	0.95	1.00
1984	Amadeus	0.96	Amadeus	0.96	1.00
1975	One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest	0.96	One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest	0.96	1.00
1954	On the Waterfont	0.96	On the Waterfont	0.96	1.00
2000	Gladiator	0.97	Gladiator	0.97	1.00
1993	Schindler's List	0.97	Schindler's List	0.97	1.00
1987	The Last Emperor	0.97	The Last Emperor	0.97	1.00
1959	Ben-Hur	0.97	Ben-Hur	0.97	1.00
1997	Titanic	0.98	Titanic	0.98	1.00
1996	The English Patient	0.98	The English Patient	0.98	1.00
1990	Dances With Wolves	0.98	Dances With Wolves	0.98	1.00
1961	West Side Story	0.98	West Side Story	0.98	1.00
1994	Forrest Gump	0.99	Forrest Gump	0.99	1.00
1983	Terms of Endearment	0.99	Terms of Endearment	0.99	1.00
1963	Tom Jones	0.99	Tom Jones	0.99	1.00
1960	The Apartment	0.99	The Apartment	0.99	1.00