Best Director winners: ordered from most to least surprising
Year	Actual Winner	Prob	Predicted Winner	Prob	Ratio
2000	Steven Soderbergh	0.01	Ang Lee	0.95	0.01
1968	Carol Reed	0.02	Anthony Harvey	0.97	0.02
1972	Bob Fosse	0.03	Francis Ford Coppola	0.96	0.03
2002	Roman Polanski	0.03	Rob Marshall	0.92	0.03
1949	Joseph L. Mankiewicz	0.02	Robert Rossen	0.50	0.04
1950	Joseph L. Mankiewicz	0.09	Billy Wilder	0.78	0.12
1946	William Wyler	0.18	Frank Capra	0.56	0.32
1948	John Huston	0.19	Jean Negulesco	0.57	0.33
1940	John Ford	0.16	Alfred Hitchcock	0.44	0.36
1941	John Ford	0.25	William Wyler	0.44	0.57
1943	Michael Curtiz	0.28	Henry King	0.40	0.70
1939	Victor Fleming	0.25	Frank Capra	0.31	0.81
1938	Frank Capra	0.25	Frank Capra	0.25	1.00
1944	Leo McCarey	0.37	Leo McCarey	0.37	1.00
1945	Billy Wilder	0.38	Billy Wilder	0.38	1.00
1985	Sydney Pollack	0.47	Sydney Pollack	0.47	1.00
1977	Woody Allen	0.54	Woody Allen	0.54	1.00
1947	Elia Kazan	0.57	Elia Kazan	0.57	1.00
1995	Mel Gibson	0.58	Mel Gibson	0.58	1.00
1942	William Wyler	0.71	William Wyler	0.71	1.00
2008	Danny Boyle	0.81	Danny Boyle	0.81	1.00
1975	Milos Forman	0.86	Milos Forman	0.86	1.00
1976	John G. Avildsen	0.87	John G. Avildsen	0.87	1.00
1980	Robert Redford	0.89	Robert Redford	0.89	1.00
1951	George Stevens	0.89	George Stevens	0.89	1.00
1986	Oliver Stone	0.90	Oliver Stone	0.90	1.00
2005	Ang Lee	0.91	Ang Lee	0.91	1.00
1991	Jonathan Demme	0.91	Jonathan Demme	0.91	1.00
1979	Robert Benton	0.91	Robert Benton	0.91	1.00
2001	Ron Howard	0.92	Ron Howard	0.92	1.00
1999	Sam Mendes	0.92	Sam Mendes	0.92	1.00
1988	Barry Levinson	0.92	Barry Levinson	0.92	1.00
2003	Peter Jackson	0.93	Peter Jackson	0.93	1.00
1971	William Friedkin	0.93	William Friedkin	0.93	1.00
1982	Richard Attenborough	0.94	Richard Attenborough	0.94	1.00
1973	George Roy Hill	0.94	George Roy Hill	0.94	1.00
2004	Clint Eastwood	0.95	Clint Eastwood	0.95	1.00
1984	Milos Forman	0.95	Milos Forman	0.95	1.00
1978	Michael Cimino	0.95	Michael Cimino	0.95	1.00
1952	John Ford	0.95	John Ford	0.95	1.00
2007	Joel Coen and Ethan Coen	0.96	Joel Coen and Ethan Coen	0.96	1.00
1992	Clint Eastwood	0.96	Clint Eastwood	0.96	1.00
1990	Kevin Costner	0.96	Kevin Costner	0.96	1.00
1974	Francis Ford Coppola	0.96	Francis Ford Coppola	0.96	1.00
2006	Martin Scorsese	0.97	Martin Scorsese	0.97	1.00
1967	Mike Nichols	0.97	Mike Nichols	0.97	1.00
1963	Tony Richardson	0.97	Tony Richardson	0.97	1.00
1957	David Lean	0.97	David Lean	0.97	1.00
1953	Fred Zinneman	0.97	Fred Zinneman	0.97	1.00
1989	Oliver Stone	0.98	Oliver Stone	0.98	1.00
1987	Bernardo Bertolucci	0.98	Bernardo Bertolucci	0.98	1.00
1983	James L. Brooks	0.98	James L. Brooks	0.98	1.00
1981	Warren Beatty	0.98	Warren Beatty	0.98	1.00
1970	Franklin J. Schaffner	0.98	Franklin J. Schaffner	0.98	1.00
1969	John Schlesinger	0.98	John Schlesinger	0.98	1.00
1965	Robert Wise	0.98	Robert Wise	0.98	1.00
1958	Vincente Minnelli	0.98	Vincente Minnelli	0.98	1.00
1956	George Stevens	0.98	George Stevens	0.98	1.00
1955	Delbert Mann	0.98	Delbert Mann	0.98	1.00
1998	Steven Spielberg	0.99	Steven Spielberg	0.99	1.00
1997	James Cameron	0.99	James Cameron	0.99	1.00
1996	Anthony Minghella	0.99	Anthony Minghella	0.99	1.00
1994	Robert Zemeckis	0.99	Robert Zemeckis	0.99	1.00
1993	Steven Spielberg	0.99	Steven Spielberg	0.99	1.00
1966	Fred Zinneman	0.99	Fred Zinneman	0.99	1.00
1964	George Cukor	0.99	George Cukor	0.99	1.00
1961	Jerome Robbins, Robert Wise	0.99	Jerome Robbins, Robert Wise	0.99	1.00
1959	William Wyler	0.99	William Wyler	0.99	1.00
1954	Elia Kazan	0.99	Elia Kazan	0.99	1.00
1962	David Lean	1.00	David Lean	1.00	1.00
1960	Billy Wilder	1.00	Billy Wilder	1.00	1.00