Best Actor winners: ordered from most to least surprising
Year	Actual Winner	Prob	Predicted Winner	Prob	Ratio
2001	Denzel Washington	0.00	Russell Crowe	0.99	0.00
1968	Cliff Robertson	0.00	Peter O'Toole	0.88	0.00
1974	Art Carney	0.02	Jack Nicholson	0.87	0.02
1946	Fredric March	0.02	Gregory Peck	0.85	0.02
1944	Bing Crosby	0.03	Alexander Knox	0.79	0.04
1964	Rex Harrison	0.05	Peter O'Toole	0.85	0.06
1986	Paul Newman	0.07	Bob Hoskins	0.74	0.09
1989	Daniel Day-Lewis	0.07	Tom Cruise	0.64	0.11
1973	Jack Lemmon	0.06	Al Pacino	0.54	0.11
1950	Jose Ferrer	0.09	William Holden	0.63	0.14
1991	Anthony Hopkins	0.10	Nick Nolte	0.67	0.15
1965	Lee Marvin	0.11	Oskar Werner	0.67	0.16
1956	Yul Brynner	0.09	Kirk Douglas	0.38	0.24
1943	Paul Lukas	0.10	Walter Pidgeon	0.33	0.30
1985	William Hurt	0.14	Jack Nicholson	0.42	0.33
1953	William Holden	0.16	Montgomery Clift	0.39	0.41
1938	Spencer Tracy	0.17	Leslie Howard	0.41	0.41
1940	James Stewart	0.24	Laurence Olivier	0.57	0.42
1942	James Cagney	0.24	Ronald Colman	0.48	0.50
1977	Richard Dreyfuss	0.32	Richard Burton	0.56	0.57
2002	Adrien Brody	0.30	Daniel Day-Lewis	0.52	0.58
1951	Humphrey Bogart	0.29	Montgomery Clift	0.29	1.00
1969	John Wayne	0.28	John Wayne	0.28	1.00
1959	Charlton Heston	0.28	Charlton Heston	0.28	1.00
1939	Robert Donat	0.33	Robert Donat	0.33	1.00
2008	Sean Penn	0.42	Sean Penn	0.42	1.00
1941	Gary Cooper	0.42	Gary Cooper	0.42	1.00
2004	Jamie Foxx	0.51	Jamie Foxx	0.51	1.00
1994	Tom Hanks	0.51	Tom Hanks	0.51	1.00
1983	Robert Duvall	0.57	Robert Duvall	0.57	1.00
1978	Jon Voight	0.57	Jon Voight	0.57	1.00
1987	Michael Douglas	0.58	Michael Douglas	0.58	1.00
1993	Tom Hanks	0.59	Tom Hanks	0.59	1.00
1966	Paul Scofield	0.59	Paul Scofield	0.59	1.00
1949	Broderick Crawford	0.64	Broderick Crawford	0.64	1.00
2000	Russell Crowe	0.67	Russell Crowe	0.67	1.00
1961	Maximilian Schell	0.75	Maximilian Schell	0.75	1.00
1958	David Niven	0.76	David Niven	0.76	1.00
1982	Ben Kingsley	0.77	Ben Kingsley	0.77	1.00
1988	Dustin Hoffman	0.78	Dustin Hoffman	0.78	1.00
1947	Ronald Colman	0.78	Ronald Colman	0.78	1.00
1981	Henry Fonda	0.79	Henry Fonda	0.79	1.00
1945	Ray Milland	0.81	Ray Milland	0.81	1.00
1999	Kevin Spacey	0.82	Kevin Spacey	0.82	1.00
1972	Marlon Brando	0.82	Marlon Brando	0.82	1.00
1971	Gene Hackman	0.82	Gene Hackman	0.82	1.00
1960	Burt Lancaster	0.82	Burt Lancaster	0.82	1.00
1990	Jeremy Irons	0.83	Jeremy Irons	0.83	1.00
1963	Sidney Poitier	0.83	Sidney Poitier	0.83	1.00
1997	Jack Nicholson	0.84	Jack Nicholson	0.84	1.00
1967	Rod Steiger	0.84	Rod Steiger	0.84	1.00
2003	Sean Penn	0.85	Sean Penn	0.85	1.00
1976	Peter Finch	0.87	Peter Finch	0.87	1.00
1975	Jack Nicholson	0.88	Jack Nicholson	0.88	1.00
1957	Alec Guinness	0.88	Alec Guinness	0.88	1.00
1984	F. Murray Abraham	0.89	F. Murray Abraham	0.89	1.00
2006	Forest Whitaker	0.90	Forest Whitaker	0.90	1.00
1970	George C. Scott	0.90	George C. Scott	0.90	1.00
1992	Al Pacino	0.91	Al Pacino	0.91	1.00
1980	Robert De Niro	0.91	Robert De Niro	0.91	1.00
1979	Dustin Hoffman	0.91	Dustin Hoffman	0.91	1.00
1948	Laurence Olivier	0.91	Laurence Olivier	0.91	1.00
1955	Ernest Borgnine	0.92	Ernest Borgnine	0.92	1.00
1952	Gary Cooper	0.92	Gary Cooper	0.92	1.00
2007	Daniel Day-Lewis	0.93	Daniel Day-Lewis	0.93	1.00
2005	Philip Seymour Hoffman	0.95	Philip Seymour Hoffman	0.95	1.00
1996	Geoffrey Rush	0.96	Geoffrey Rush	0.96	1.00
1995	Nicolas Cage	0.96	Nicolas Cage	0.96	1.00
1998	Roberto Benigni	0.97	Roberto Benigni	0.97	1.00
1962	Gregory Peck	0.97	Gregory Peck	0.97	1.00
1954	Marlon Brando	0.97	Marlon Brando	0.97	1.00